Edd Straw of Autosport.com is reporting that Fernando Alonso agrees with my guess: Hamilton recieved his 25-second penalty not because of the immediate competitive advantage he gained by cutting the chicane, but because Raikkonen would have been much farther ahead had both drivers done the chicane properly:

Alonso said he fully supported the FIA stewards’ decision to hit Hamilton with a 25-second penalty, which handed victory to Felipe Massa, because he felt there was no doubt he gained an advantage.

“Yes, I totally agree,” he said of the stewards’ decision. “Lewis had an advantage by doing that. If he did the chicane properly, he would never have crossed the line one metre behind Kimi. You lose five or ten metres and then you cannot overtake in Turn 1.

“We always said we would give back the position, but at the same time as giving back the position you cannot take advantage of what you did one corner before. If you give back the position, take the slipstream and overtake the guy into the next corner you still have an advantage because of what you did.”

I know I called it rather circuitous logic–and in some ways it still is. But if other drivers believe that Hamilton still had a competitive advantage even after allowing Raikkonen to pass, I’m willing to take the argument a little more seriously than I was originally. I can certainly say this: Every time I’ve had the misfortune of leaving the track, I sure haven’t ended up directly behind the car that was tailing before leaving the track.

It remains to be seen in the FIA will use this logic in their response to McLaren’s appeal. But if they do, remember that you heard it here first.